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Turkey Flat Blind Prediction Workshop

A Workshop on the Turkey Flat Blind Prediction Test was held at The Westin San Francisco Airport Hotel on September 21, 2006. It was a 1-day workshop that covered:

  • comparisons of the prediction results with each other and with the observed ground motions

  • site characterization and comparisons of the preferred medium models used by the predictors to each other and to the standard model

  • discussion of the performance of various categories of computational models used in the predictions.

A total of 22 computational models were used in the predictions, ranging from Shake-like equivalent-linear methods to advanced nonlinear methods, and the predictions used a variety of soils models as well as the standard. The workshop brought together and compared the resulting prediction efforts of 15 prediction teams. The results of this blind test indicate that this is an important and valuable experiment and should be of interest to many individuals as well as the prediction teams. The workshop wrapped up with consideration of directions for future blind ground motion prediction experiments.

Any follow-up information or materials related to the workshop will appear on this web page.

Download Summary of Turkey Flat Project (PDF, 927 KB)


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